XRP Plunges 63% from Peak, Over 60% of Supply Now Underwater as Market Sentiment Wanes

XRP is currently trading at $1.35, a significant 63% drawdown from its multi-year high of $3.66 achieved in July 2025. This steep decline has left a substantial portion of XRP holders experiencing unrealized losses, a stark reminder of the inherent risks that cryptocurrency investors face during bear market cycles. The prolonged weakness in XRP’s price is not only impacting individual investors but also the broader ecosystem, with data indicating that over 60% of the circulating XRP supply is now held at a loss.

The XRP/USD trading pair is currently positioned 28% below its year-to-date opening price of $1.87. This downward trend has been a continuation of its performance in 2025, which saw XRP close the year with an 11.6% loss. The sustained price depreciation has pushed a significant amount of XRP into negative equity. According to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, with XRP trading at $1.35 at the time of reporting, approximately 36.8 billion XRP are currently held at a loss. This translates to an aggregate unrealized loss of $50.8 billion, representing over 60% of the total circulating supply.

Further reinforcing the bearish sentiment, XRP’s spot price has fallen below its aggregate holder cost basis, which currently stands at $1.44. This suggests that even long-term holders are feeling the financial strain of the current market conditions. The cost basis represents the average price at which investors acquired their XRP holdings, and when the spot price dips below this level, it indicates that a majority of holders are in a loss position.

The pressure is also evident among investors in spot XRP Exchange Traded Products (ETPs). Data compiled by SoSoValue reveals a trend of investors reducing their exposure to these investment vehicles. Spot XRP ETPs have experienced outflows for two consecutive days, accumulating a total of $22.8 million. Friday alone saw net outflows exceeding $16.2 million, marking the largest redemption recorded since January 29, when spot XRP ETPs witnessed a significant outflow of $93 million. This indicates a growing risk-off sentiment among investors participating in these regulated products.

The broader trend of declining investor confidence extends to global XRP investment products. During the week ending March 6, these products collectively registered net outflows exceeding $30 million, underscoring a widespread inclination among investors to divest from XRP-related assets.

Key XRP Price Levels to Monitor Below $1.40

The XRP/USD trading pair is currently navigating within a defined price range, with $1.40 acting as a resistance level and $1.30 serving as a crucial support zone. For the bulls to regain momentum and prevent further price erosion, it is imperative that this $1.30 support level holds firm. The current price action shows XRP retesting the lower boundary of this range.

Analysts at CryptoPulse have commented on the significance of this level, stating, "If buyers step in here, we could see XRP rotate right back toward the top of the range again." However, they also caution about the potential for further downside if this support fails to materialize: "If this level breaks, the range structure starts to shift and price could look for lower levels."

A critical area of interest for traders lies between the $1.30 support level and the local low of $1.27, which was established on February 28. A breach below this zone could trigger a further decline, with the next potential support target being the February 6 low of $1.13. This level also coincides with the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a significant technical indicator often watched by market participants.

On the upward trajectory, the immediate focus for XRP bulls is to reclaim the 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.40 and convert it into a support level. This would signal a potential shift in market sentiment and pave the way for further price appreciation.

Glassnode’s analysis of the UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) for XRP highlights an important psychological and technical level around the 200-week SMA. This metric indicates that investors acquired approximately $1.28 billion in XRP around this price point, suggesting a concentration of holdings that could influence price action.

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on potential upward price targets for XRP. If the critical support at $1.40 can be successfully defended and flipped into resistance, the XRP price could potentially rally towards $1.60 and subsequently target the $1.95 level. However, the current market dynamics and the prevailing bearish sentiment present significant headwinds to such optimistic scenarios. The ongoing price action and the ability of buyers to defend key support levels will be crucial in determining XRP’s short-to-medium term trajectory. The broader cryptocurrency market’s performance and any potential regulatory developments concerning XRP will also play a significant role in shaping its future price movements.