Galaxy Digital Research Analyst Asserts Quantum Threat to Bitcoin is Real but Mitigable, Highlights Developer Progress

The potential threat posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin investors is a genuine concern, but it is not a universal vulnerability affecting all wallets. Crucially, the individuals and development teams best equipped to address this emerging challenge are actively engaged in developing solutions, according to Will Owens, a research analyst at Galaxy Digital.

In a comprehensive report released on Thursday, Owens detailed the theoretical mechanism by which quantum computers could compromise Bitcoin’s security. The core of the threat lies in the ability of a sufficiently powerful quantum computer to derive a user’s private keys from their publicly visible public keys. This cryptographic breakthrough would enable an attacker to effectively impersonate the legitimate owner of a Bitcoin address, forge digital signatures required for transaction authorization, and ultimately steal the funds held within that address.

However, Owens was quick to qualify the extent of this vulnerability, emphasizing that not all Bitcoin wallets are equally susceptible to such an attack. "In fact, most wallets are not vulnerable today," Owens stated. "Funds are at risk only when public keys are exposed on-chain." This critical distinction means that the immediate danger is not to every Bitcoin holder, but rather to those whose public keys have been made accessible on the blockchain.

Owens identified two primary scenarios through which Bitcoin wallets can become vulnerable to quantum-related key derivation: firstly, wallets whose public keys are already visible on the blockchain, and secondly, wallets where the public key is revealed during the process of making a transaction. In the first case, the public key is a matter of record, readily available for a quantum computer to analyze. In the second case, while the public key might not be immediately visible, the act of spending from a wallet exposes this crucial piece of information, creating a window of opportunity for an attacker.

The specter of quantum computing’s impact on cryptocurrency has been a recurring topic of discussion and debate within the crypto community for some time, often framed as an impending inflection point in the evolution of digital assets. The theoretical capabilities of advanced quantum computers, capable of breaking current encryption standards, have fueled concerns about the potential for revealing sensitive user data, compromising digital identities, and facilitating the theft of digital assets.

Despite these concerns, a counter-argument persists within some circles of the crypto industry, positing that the threat of quantum computing is overstated. Critics often point to the fact that the development of quantum computers powerful enough to break Bitcoin’s current encryption is still many years, if not decades, away from widespread viability. Furthermore, they argue that traditional financial institutions and other highly valuable targets for cyberattacks will likely be compromised by quantum technology long before the Bitcoin network faces a significant threat.

Addressing concerns that the Bitcoin Core development community might be overlooking or hindering progress on quantum-resistant solutions, Owens stated that his research indicated otherwise. He acknowledged the existence of online discourse suggesting that quantum-related proposals, such as the soft fork BIP 360, were being "ignored and gatekept." However, Owens claims to have found evidence to the contrary, noting that "the pace of proposals has accelerated meaningfully since late 2025."

"Contrary to some public criticism, our review found substantial developer work addressing the question of quantum vulnerabilities and mitigations," Owens asserted. He elaborated on the maturity of the ongoing efforts, stating, "The ecosystem now has a concrete and maturing set of proposals spanning the full problem surface. These proposals are not theoretical. They are being actively developed, reviewed, and debated by some of the most experienced contributors in the Bitcoin ecosystem." This indicates a proactive and collaborative approach to identifying and rectifying potential weaknesses.

Beyond the direct efforts of Bitcoin Core developers, other prominent figures in the cryptocurrency space have also put forward potential strategies for mitigating quantum risks. Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo, for example, suggested last November that holding Bitcoin (BTC) in a Segregated Witness (SegWit) wallet for an extended period could serve as a hedge against quantum-related threats. SegWit is a Bitcoin upgrade that modifies the data structure of transactions, and some believe it offers improved security against certain types of attacks, including those potentially enabled by quantum computing.

While the technical challenges of developing and implementing post-quantum cryptography are being addressed, a significant hurdle remains in the governance structure of Bitcoin. Owens highlighted that when a viable post-quantum solution is eventually developed, its adoption will likely present a unique challenge. "Bitcoin has no CEO, no board, and no central authority that can mandate a software update," he explained. This decentralized nature, while a core strength, means that widespread consensus and voluntary adoption are required for any significant network upgrade.

However, Owens expressed optimism regarding the potential for consensus on this specific issue. He argued that "the nature of this particular threat – external, technical, and universal in its impact – aligns incentives in a way that past disputes over Bitcoin’s economic direction did not." The shared vulnerability of the entire network, regardless of individual holdings or operational roles, creates a powerful incentive for all participants to support a solution. "Every honest participant in the network, from miners to holders to exchanges, has a direct financial interest in the network’s continued security," he added.

Ultimately, for investors navigating the evolving landscape of digital assets, Owens’ key takeaway is one of measured reassurance: "The risk is real but recognized, and the people best positioned to address it are working on it." This suggests that while the quantum threat is not to be dismissed, the Bitcoin ecosystem is demonstrating a capacity to confront and adapt to future technological challenges.