Scaramucci Attributes Bitcoin’s Bear Market to Four-Year Cycle and Long-Term Holder Sales, Predicts 2026 Bull Run

Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of the SkyBridge investment firm, has offered an explanation for the current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market, attributing it to the traditional four-year market cycle and the selling behavior of long-term BTC holders who reached the $100,000 psychological level. Scaramucci’s insights were shared during a discussion with Scott Melker on "The Wolf of All Streets" podcast.

According to Scaramucci, while institutional investors and inflows from Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have somewhat "muted" the impact of the four-year cycle and cushioned volatility, these altered market dynamics have not entirely eradicated Bitcoin’s historical cyclical patterns. He articulated this by stating, "We’re in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG’s, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Scaramucci forecasts that Bitcoin will continue to experience volatile price action for the majority of the current year. However, he anticipates a resurgence in a new bull market cycle starting in the fourth quarter of 2026, at which point prices are expected to begin an upward trend again.

The investment executive revealed that many market participants, including himself, had widely anticipated Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2025. This optimistic outlook was fueled by expectations of a pro-crypto agenda from then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and a warming regulatory environment for digital assets in the United States.

However, a significant market downturn in October, which saw BTC plummet from an all-time high of approximately $126,000 to a low of $60,000, effectively shattered this prevailing consensus. Scaramucci pointed to market behavior often moving in opposition to prevailing investor sentiment, citing Bitcoin’s price action in the early months of 2023, following the collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022, as an illustrative example. He noted, "It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again," adding that the current Bitcoin bear market is a "garden variety" correction consistent with previous downturns.

The validity of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory remains a subject of ongoing debate within the crypto industry. Executives, analysts, and market participants continue to discuss whether the theory still holds true, especially after Bitcoin ended 2025 in negative territory, or if evolving market dynamics have permanently altered its price movements. This debate is further complicated by external economic and geopolitical factors.

Geopolitical Turmoil and its Impact on Bitcoin’s Price

The escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Iran entering its third week, have had a tangible impact on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s price fell below $69,000 on Saturday as global risk assets experienced a broad downturn. This decline in Bitcoin mirrored a broader trend in traditional financial markets, with the S&P 500 index extending its decline on Friday, dropping by approximately 1.3%. Earlier in the week, the S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in ten months, a key technical indicator for assessing the overall trend of equities markets.

In light of this increasing correlation between Bitcoin and traditional stock markets, some analysts are now forecasting a potential 50% drop in Bitcoin’s price in 2026 if this positive correlation persists. This outlook suggests that further geopolitical instability and economic uncertainty could exert significant downward pressure on Bitcoin.

The market’s response to geopolitical events underscores the interconnectedness of various asset classes and the influence of macro-economic factors on cryptocurrency prices. While Scaramucci’s analysis focuses on the internal cyclical dynamics of Bitcoin, the external pressures from global conflicts and market sentiment introduce additional layers of complexity to price predictions. The debate over whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains a dominant force or has been superseded by new market paradigms continues, with external events playing a crucial role in shaping short-term price action.

Scaramucci’s perspective, rooted in historical market cycles and the psychology of long-term investors, provides a framework for understanding the current downturn. However, the evolving nature of the cryptocurrency market, influenced by institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and global geopolitical events, suggests that future price movements may be subject to a more complex interplay of factors than ever before. The projected bull run in late 2026, as predicted by Scaramucci, will likely depend not only on the reassertion of traditional cycles but also on the broader economic and geopolitical landscape.